Browsing by Author "WANZALA, Andrew Jacob"

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    Projected future habitat suitability of selected medicinal plants in Eastern Uganda under climate change: a maxent modelling approach
    (Busitema university, 2026-07-28) WANZALA, Andrew Jacob
    The selected medicinal plants are a source of primary health care for both poor communities and those in developing countries. They are an alternative for synthetic drugs in places with limited health facilities, and in some areas, they are resorted to for their safety and low toxicity. However, accurate prediction of the future distribution of these MPs under changing environmental conditions has, until now, not been available, limiting the conservation strategies that could be planned in advance of anticipated habitat change. The area of study was selected using purposive sampling from information sources such as the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and the Makerere University Herbarium (MUH), supplemented by field-collected GPS occurrence and elevation data. The changes in five environmental variables (land use, slope, precipitation, temperature, and soil factors) were projected using MaxEnt software, and the future distribution was mapped for two horizons, 2040 and 2060, alongside a current-conditions baseline for comparison. The projections show that most of the nine focal species are expected to retain broadly stable habitat suitability surfaces through 2040 and 2060, with the most spatially restricted species Warburgia ugandaensis and Croton macrostachyus projected to remain confined to their current narrow southern range with no new refugia emerging elsewhere in the country. Tephrosia linearis is the exception, with its currently even distribution projected to fragment into a mosaic of high- and low-suitability patches in north-eastern Uganda by 2060. The environmental variables of mean annual temperature, elevation, precipitation, and land use/cover were identified as the primary drivers of the projected future distribution.
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    Projected future habitat suitability of selected medicinal plants in Eastern Uganda under climate change: a maxent modelling approach
    (Busitema university, 2026-09-11) WANZALA, Andrew Jacob
    The selected medicinal plants are a source of primary health care for both poor communities and those in developing countries. They are an alternative for synthetic drugs in places with limited health facilities, and in some areas, they are resorted to for their safety and low toxicity. However, accurate prediction of the future distribution of these MPs under changing environmental conditions has, until now, not been available, limiting the conservation strategies that could be planned in advance of anticipated habitat change. The area of study was selected using purposive sampling from information sources such as the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and the Makerere University Herbarium (MUH), supplemented by field-collected GPS occurrence and elevation data. The changes in five environmental variables (land use, slope, precipitation, temperature, and soil factors) were projected using MaxEnt software, and the future distribution was mapped for two horizons, 2040 and 2060, alongside a current-conditions baseline for comparison. The projections show that most of the nine focal species are expected to retain broadly stable habitat suitability surfaces through 2040 and 2060, with the most spatially restricted species Warburgia ugandaensis and Croton macrostachyus projected to remain confined to their current narrow southern range with no new refugia emerging elsewhere in the country. Tephrosia linearis is the exception, with its currently even distribution projected to fragment into a mosaic of high- and low-suitability patches in north-eastern Uganda by 2060. The environmental variables of mean annual temperature, elevation, precipitation, and land use/cover were identified as the primary drivers of the projected future distribution.