The forest-water-people nexus in the Mt. Elgon Water Tower Region, Uganda: impacts of tree cover and population changes on water availability
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Date
2025
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Makerere University
Abstract
A critical knowledge gap exists in understanding how biophysical changes and socio-institutional dynamics jointly influence water availability
and land-use planning, under future development scenarios in data-scarce mountainous regions, particularly in terms of integrating diverse
knowledge sources for informed decision-making. Despite numerous natural resource management initiatives and agroforestry programs,
forest-water governance in these landscapes remains limited, primarily due to institutional weaknesses rather than local resistance. This study
investigates the interactions between human population and tree cover changes and water availability in Uganda’s Mt. Elgon Water Tower
Region (MEWTR), focusing on the Sipi River and River Manafwa sub-catchments. An integrated, participatory, mixed-methods approach was
applied. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was used to analyse long-term data (1990–2024) to assess causal links between population change,
tree cover change, and hydrological variables. Results show a decline in tree cover from 27.1% in 1990 to 18.9% in 2017. Surprisingly, streamflow
in Sipi River Sub-catchment (SRSC) increased during dry months, despite minimal precipitation change—suggesting complex hydrological
responses to land-use change transformations.
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PHD Thesis
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Citation
Kimbowa, G. (2025). The forest-water-people nexus in the Mt. Elgon Water Tower Region, Uganda: impacts of tree cover and population changes on water availability; Unpublished PhD Thesis, Makerere University, Kampala