Validation of Dst Prediction Model Run By Busitema University Space Science Center
No Thumbnail Available
Date
2026-09-03
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Busitema University
Abstract
The Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) index is a critical measure of geomagnetic activity serving as a key indicator for space weather monitoring and forecasting. Accurate prediction of the Dst index is essential for mitigating the destructive effects of geomagnetic storms on technological infrastructure including satellite operations, power grids, communication systems and navigation networks. This research is about evaluation of Busitema University Space Weather Tool that has a capability of forecasting the Dst index among other metrics of space weather. Model data from Busitema University Space Weather Tool is evaluated against observation data obtained from OMNIweb run by NASA. The performance of the model was evaluated during quiet and disturbed days. The model demonstrated excellent predictive capability across both categories. A key observation is that the model achieved exceptional performance during intense storm conditions indicating almost perfect tracking of storm dynamics from onset to recovery. However a systematic negative bias was identified across the majority of events indicating a consistent tendency for the model to underestimate the magnitude of Dst extremes. This bias was more pronounced during disturbed days and quiet days with negative values for the daily average Dst index, suggesting that while the model effectively captures the trend of geomagnetic activity, it tends to under predict extreme values. This means that it is necessary to implement correction techniques to address the systematic underestimation.
The strong correlation coefficients observed across all categories confirm the model's ability in tracking the overall trends and dynamics of the Dst index. The results of this research strongly indicate that the Busitema University Space Weather Tool is able to provide valuable information to support stakeholders affected by geomagnetic disturbances hence contributing to the protection of critical technological infrastructure against space weather hazards.
Description
Keywords
Citation
Onangole, N. (2026). Validation of DST prediction model run by Busitema University Space Science Center [Undergraduate research report]. Busitema University.