Impact Of Land Use And Land Coverchanges On Carbon Stocks In Serere’s Central Forests Reserves.
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Date
2025
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Busitema University
Abstract
This study assessed the impact of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on carbon stocksin Serere Central Forest Reserves, Uganda, between 2001 and 2020. Multi -temporal Landsat
imagery was classified using the Random Forest algorithm in R and QGIS to map LULC transitions, and carbon stocks were estimated with the InVEST model using IPCC Tier 1 carbon
density values. Boxplots illustrated carbon stock distributions across land use types over the years, while Spearman’s rank correlation quantified the relationship between forest area and
total carbon, and Kruskal–Wallis tests evaluated temporal differences in carbon stocks. The results revealed substantial LULC transformations, with forest cover declining from 22.73 km²
(55.2%) in 2001 to 12.12 km² (29.4%) in 2020 a net loss of 10.61 km² while agricultural land expanded from 8.04 km² to 22.78 km² and settlements increased by 288 hectares. Total carbon
stocks decreased by 36.9%, from 774,947 Mg C in 2001 to 488,991 Mg C in 2020, corresponding to approximately 1.05 million tonnes of CO2 emissions. Forest areas accounted
for the highest carbon losses (269,542 Mg C), whereas agricultural expansion contributed modest carbon gains (68,508 Mg C) due to its low carbon density. Spearman’s correlationconfirmed a strong, positive, and statistically significant relationship between forest area and total carbon stocks (r2 = 0.986, p < 0.01), highlighting forests as the primary determinant of landscape carbon dynamics. The Kruskal–Wallis test indicated no significant differences in carbon stocks across years, suggesting gradual rather than abrupt temporal changes. These findings underscore that deforestation and land conversion substantially reduce carbon storage capacity releasing more carbon to the atmosphere increasing the greenhouse gases and contributing to climate change, emphasizing the need for integrated land use planning, forestconservation, and community-based reforestation. The study provides empirical evidence to support Uganda’s REDD+ initiatives and informs national strategies for climate change mitigation and resilience.
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Okurut, Samuel.(2025).Impact Of Land Use And Land Coverchanges On Carbon Stocks In Serere’s Central Forests Reserves.Busitema University.